The National Statistics Office (NSO) has estimated Nepal’s economy to grow by 4.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, mid-January and mid-April, of the current fiscal year, 2024/25.
Releasing the preliminary estimates on Monday, July 7, the NSO said that the seasonally unadjusted national quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) at basic price is expected to grow 4.8 percent compared to the same quarter last fiscal.
The growth is mainly driven by increased electricity generation and distribution, expansion in the construction sector, growth in financial and insurance activities, and a rise in mining and quarrying.
Among the 18 sectors, electricity generation and distribution is estimated to record the highest growth at 12.5 percent. It is followed by construction at 6.9 percent; mining and quarrying, and financial and insurance activities at 6.7 percent each; information and communication at 6.6 percent; and transport and storage at 6.3 percent.
Growth Rate of Seasonally Unadjusted (Year on Year) National Quarterly GDP by Economic Activities (at basic Price , 2010/11)
ISIC |
Industrial Classification |
2078/79 |
2079/80 |
2080/81 |
2081/82 | |||||||||||
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
2024/25 | |||||||||||||
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 | ||
A |
Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
2.9 |
3.4 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
5.8 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
B |
Mining and quarrying |
10.8 |
3.7 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
-3.0 |
2.0 |
-2.8 |
7.3 |
6.6 |
-3.2 |
-7.5 |
16.2 |
-1.6 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
C |
Manufacturing |
6.7 |
4.4 |
5.6 |
10.6 |
-2.6 |
-3.4 |
-1.2 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
-4.7 |
-4.3 |
1.6 |
3.6 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
D |
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
28.5 |
37.5 |
72.4 |
88.3 |
37.0 |
12.6 |
-21.9 |
33.2 |
17.1 |
18.2 |
38.3 |
-8.7 |
17.5 |
7.4 |
12.5 |
E |
Water supply; sewerage, waste management |
-2.8 |
0.9 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
2.2 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
4.0 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
F |
Construction |
7.4 |
3.1 |
10.3 |
7.0 |
3.8 |
-17.4 |
-5.9 |
13.8 |
-0.1 |
9.4 |
-6.3 |
-8.7 |
-3.3 |
5.2 |
6.9 |
G |
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles & motorcycles |
-10.2 |
11.3 |
-2.1 |
41.0 |
-1.5 |
-15.2 |
-3.1 |
6.0 |
-1.6 |
0.3 |
-2.9 |
2.5 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
5.6 |
H |
Transportation and storage |
10.2 |
7.9 |
0.0 |
-1.7 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
4.4 |
18.4 |
19.3 |
12.2 |
10.7 |
12.0 |
6.3 |
I |
Accommodation and food service activities |
22.4 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
29.1 |
54.0 |
-1.1 |
5.3 |
27.1 |
14.3 |
35.2 |
21.4 |
14.0 |
9.4 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
J |
Information and communication |
7.5 |
3.8 |
-1.5 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
7.0 |
7.9 |
6.4 |
-1.8 |
2.2 |
5.6 |
6.6 |
K |
Financial and insurance activities |
18.9 |
9.0 |
-7.2 |
11.1 |
19.3 |
14.8 |
22.6 |
-17.4 |
8.3 |
16.6 |
-1.7 |
10.9 |
4.7 |
5.6 |
6.7 |
L |
Real estate activities |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
M |
Professional, scientific and technical activities |
2.7 |
3.9 |
2.8 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
5.1 |
N |
Administrative and support service activities |
-2.3 |
0.6 |
5.1 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
5.7 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
5.1 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
5.7 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
4.9 |
O |
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
7.9 |
7.9 |
-0.6 |
1.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
11.9 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
10.6 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
3.8 |
P |
Education |
10.2 |
6.6 |
-1.7 |
4.2 |
2.7 |
6.7 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
Q |
Human health and social work activities |
0.5 |
13.8 |
4.6 |
9.8 |
10.8 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
6.8 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
4.7 |
R, S, T |
Others services |
2.2 |
4.3 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
10.1 |
3.6 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
1.4 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
|
Aggregate |
3.8 |
6.0 |
1.9 |
9.3 |
4.7 |
-1.0 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
The manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 6.2 percent, owing to a gradual improvement in industrial output compared to the same quarter last year.
The wholesale and retail trade sector—the second largest contributor—is expected to grow by 5.6 percent, supported by increased domestic production of agricultural and tradable goods, along with higher imports of key traded items.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing—the largest contributor to GDP—is projected to grow by 3.6 percent. The NSO attributed this to moderate increases in the production of winter crops, vegetables, and some cash crops, which boosted value added in the sector.
Although all 18 sectors are estimated to expand, the overall growth rate is expected to remain modest due to subdued performance in sectors such as education, water and waste management, and accommodation and food services.
NSO also projected GDP at basic prices to grow by only 0.6 percent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of the current fiscal year, based on seasonally adjusted data. Of the 18 sectors, 15 are expected to grow.
Seasonally Adjusted (Quarter on Quarter) Growth Rate of National Quartely GDP by Economic Activities (at basic Price , 2010/11)
ISIC |
Industrial Classification |
2078/79 |
2079/80 |
2080/81 |
2081/82 | |||||||||||
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
2024/25 | |||||||||||||
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 | ||
A |
Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
-0.1 |
0.7 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
-1.6 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
B |
Mining and quarrying |
6.9 |
-0.3 |
8.3 |
-6.1 |
-3.8 |
5.3 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
-2.1 |
-4.0 |
-1.5 |
24.4 |
-16.0 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
C |
Manufacturing |
6.2 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
-1.1 |
-4.0 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
-0.8 |
-2.9 |
-2.2 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
D |
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply |
34.3 |
14.6 |
20.9 |
1.0 |
-4.6 |
-1.4 |
-15.7 |
66.1 |
-16.5 |
3.0 |
-0.2 |
5.3 |
7.6 |
-3.9 |
5.5 |
E |
Water supply; sewerage, waste management |
1.8 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
-0.3 |
-2.0 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
-2.0 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
F |
Construction |
1.1 |
6.4 |
3.8 |
-4.6 |
-1.8 |
-13.6 |
15.9 |
15.7 |
-14.1 |
-4.2 |
-1.6 |
12.2 |
-8.9 |
4.9 |
0.0 |
G |
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles & motorcycles |
36.8 |
11.9 |
-6.8 |
-3.7 |
-1.2 |
-4.2 |
6.3 |
2.5 |
-4.4 |
-2.4 |
2.0 |
5.4 |
-3.3 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
H |
Transportation and storage |
9.6 |
-5.7 |
-4.0 |
4.4 |
6.2 |
-8.2 |
-0.1 |
7.6 |
5.8 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
-0.5 |
6.5 |
3.9 |
-3.3 |
I |
Accommodation and food service activities |
-12.9 |
24.6 |
18.5 |
-6.7 |
14.1 |
-19.9 |
19.2 |
12.2 |
5.2 |
0.9 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
-1.7 |
-0.8 |
J |
Information and communication |
0.9 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
6.7 |
-1.0 |
-1.4 |
0.8 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
-0.3 |
-0.5 |
-4.4 |
7.6 |
3.2 |
0.4 |
K |
Financial and insurance activities |
-3.1 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
19.4 |
-5.0 |
-3.0 |
14.1 |
-20.6 |
24.2 |
1.2 |
-2.1 |
-5.2 |
13.2 |
-0.4 |
-1.6 |
L |
Real estate activities |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
M |
Professional, scientific and technical activities |
1.4 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
N |
Administrative and support service activities |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
1.3 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
2.2 |
-1.5 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
O |
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security |
0.3 |
1.4 |
-3.0 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
-6.9 |
5.3 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
2.4 |
P |
Education |
3.2 |
-1.1 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
2.3 |
-1.9 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
-1.8 |
1.9 |
-0.7 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
Q |
Human health and social work activities |
2.2 |
5.1 |
-0.2 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
0.1 |
1.6 |
R, S, T |
Other services |
-1.6 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
-1.2 |
8.4 |
-1.8 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
|
Aggregate |
5.8 |
3.0 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
-1.9 |
3.0 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
Transport and storage, financial and insurance activities, and accommodation and food services are projected to contract by 3.3 percent, 1.6 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively.
Aside from strong growth in electricity generation and distribution at 5.5 percent, moderate gains across other sectors are expected to result in only marginal overall growth, the NSO said.