The first week of July is drawing to a close, but paddy transplantation is yet to begin on large swathes of fields in Siraha, a district in Nepal’s Tarai region–known as the country’s food basket.

Monsoon paddy, Nepal’s staple crop, is typically transplanted in June and July and harvested in October and November. But this year, farmers in Madhes are facing delays due to a lack of timely rainfall and persistent fertiliser shortages.

Although the monsoon system entered the country 15 days earlier than usual, it took more than three weeks to spread across the country. While many areas have since received considerable rainfall, Madhes is still waiting for sustained downpours.

The lack of irrigation facilities in the region means farmers are heavily dependent on rain for paddy cultivation. They also rely on the government to ensure timely supply of chemical fertilisers, which seldom happens.

Every year, fertiliser shortages hit during the peak transplantation period.

“We’ve ploughed our fields and prepared seedlings, but there’s neither rain nor fertiliser,” said Ram Kumar Yadav, a farmer from Lahan Municipality-23. He added that fields are beginning to dry out due to the dry spell. “DAP fertiliser is unavailable in the market, and it’s essential for paddy growth after transplantation.”

Transplantation has been completed in only 18 percent of the total 54,000 hectares of paddy fields in Siraha so far, according to Kiran Bishwakarma, Information Officer at the district’s Agriculture Knowledge Centre. He warned that delayed transplantation would directly affect yield.

Meteorologists have forecast below-average rainfall in Madhes in the coming weeks.

In a post on X on July 4, Dr Binod Pokharel, Associate Professor at the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, said the monsoon trough was currently far from Nepal and was unlikely to approach in the near term. “As a result, rainfall has been very low in Madhes and Koshi provinces and is expected to remain below average in the coming week,” he wrote. “Other provinces are likely to see normal rainfall.”

Earlier on July 2, Pokharel said on X that the nature of this year’s monsoon rainfall was quite surprising. “While most parts of Nepal are receiving rain, the Tarai remains dry. Areas like Pokhara and Sankhuwasabha—usually among the rainiest in the country—have seen very little rainfall. Forecasts suggest that the eastern half of the country will remain dry for the next four weeks as well, whereas western Nepal is expected to receive significant rainfall,” read the post.

Pradeep Singh Danuwar, chairperson of the Nepal National Farmers’ Group in Siraha, said the recurring problems highlight the need for long-term irrigation solutions and consistent fertiliser supply. “Without intervention, paddy farmers will continue to struggle and the country will suffer from lower production of its staple food grain,” he said.

Nepal’s rice sector is increasingly strained by climate variability, import dependency, and chronic fertiliser shortages.

In a troubling reversal, rice and paddy imports have nearly doubled year-on-year in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year. According to government data, rice imports reached Rs 38.94 billion by mid-June, compared to Rs 22 billion for the entire previous fiscal year. Paddy imports surged to Rs 21.15 billion, up from Rs 12.43 billion a year earlier. Imports of fine rice more than doubled to 57,360 tonnes worth Rs 17.78 billion.

[Read:  Fields of Promise, Clouds of Concern ]

Officials and analysts attribute this jump largely to India’s rice export policy.

“Nepali farmers produce nearly 6 million tonnes of paddy annually, while domestic demand is around 7 million tonnes,” Keshav Devkota, Chief of the Centre for Crop Development and Agro-Biodiversity Conservation, told New Business Age in a recent interview. “That gap forces us to rely on imports.”

The government aims to procure 550,000 tonnes of chemical fertiliser in the current fiscal year, which ends July 16, according to the Economic Survey 2024/25. As of mid-March, 262,930 tonnes had been distributed, with another 81,500 tonnes in stock.

Last fiscal year, only 458,318 tonnes were imported against a target of 600,000 tonnes.

In the budget for FY 2025/26, the government has allocated Rs 57.48 billion for agriculture, a slight increase from Rs 57.29 billion in the current year. Of this, Rs 28.82 billion is earmarked for chemical fertiliser supply, while Rs 400 million is set aside for organic fertilisers.

Still, Nepal’s inability to produce fertilisers domestically remains a key bottleneck. “The import process is lengthy, and our sourcing options are limited,” Devkota said.

Earlier this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development projected a record paddy harvest of 5.95 million tonnes for FY 2024/25—up 4.04 percent from last year—despite a 1.28 percent drop in the area under cultivation. The ministry credited the increase to early monsoon rains, improved seed varieties, and fertiliser availability.

(With inputs from RSS)