Oli vs Balen: Can a New Challenger Breach UML’s Jhapa Fortress?

The political contest in Jhapa constituency No 5 has intensified, turning the traditional UML stronghold into a focal point of national attention as CPN-UML Chair and four-time Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli faces Balen Shah, a senior leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City.

With both candidates filing nominations for the March 5 House of Representatives election, Jhapa-5 is set for a high-stakes showdown between an established political heavyweight and a leader popular among younger voters.

Oli is contesting from Jhapa-5 for the eighth time. Of the seven elections he previously fought here, he won six and lost once. He secured victories in the parliamentary elections of 1991, 1994, 1999, 2013, 2017 and 2022. His sole defeat came in the 2008 Constituent Assembly election, when Maoist candidate Bishwadeep Lingden defeated him by around 1,200 votes.

This time, Oli faces Shah, who rose to prominence after winning the Kathmandu mayoral race as an independent candidate with a large margin. The crowds and enthusiasm seen during Shah’s nomination have signalled a tough contest in what has long been considered Oli’s stronghold.

Although Jhapa-5 has traditionally favoured the UML, past elections—particularly in 2008—have shown that the constituency can produce unexpected outcomes. Shah has positioned himself as a representative of the new generation and a leader emerging from the post–Gen Z political movement, drawing visible enthusiasm among young voters and those disillusioned with mainstream parties.

Since Shah’s nomination, several local leaders from the Nepali Congress and the UML have joined the RSP. Nepali Congress Damak municipal chair Prakash Prasai, a popular figure among the youths, entered the RSP on the day of nomination. Similarly, the chair, vice-chair and secretary of the UML-affiliated National Youth Federation Nepal, Damak municipal committee, have also switched allegiance. UML youth leader Kamal Prasad Gaire announced his resignation from the party through social media, while Nepali Congress’ Kamal Rural Municipality secretary Mahendra Budhathoki has also joined the RSP.

However, local political figures caution against drawing early conclusions. Netra Budhathoki, former principal of Damak Multiple Campus and a Nepali Congress general convention representative, said Prasai’s departure would not significantly weaken the party’s organisational base. “Individual decisions do not cause fundamental damage to the party,” he said.

Budhathoki also warned against equating social media narratives with electoral reality. “On social media, UML supporters appear to have already declared Oli the winner, while Shah’s supporters are equally confident. But online sentiment alone cannot determine election outcomes,” he said.

Advocate Lila Udasi, based in Jhapa, echoed a similar view, noting that campaigning has only just begun. “All parties are claiming victory, but it is too early to make a concrete assessment,” he Udasi.

Udasi pointed out that Oli had previously benefited from an electoral alliance with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which helped secure comfortable victories. This time, the RPP is fielding Laxmi Prasad Sangraula, making the contest more challenging for Oli.

In the 2022 election, Oli won with 52,319 votes, while Nepali Congress candidate Khagendra Adhikari secured 23,743 votes. The RSP finished third with 11,748 votes, while also receiving around 18,000 votes under the proportional representation system.

This time, the political equation has changed. There is no formal alliance between the UML and the RPP, and the Nepali Congress has fielded Mandara Chimariya, a local resident of Damak, as its candidate. Even some UML leaders privately admit that replicating the previous vote margin will be difficult amid growing dissatisfaction with Oli’s rhetoric and style, and a visible shift of young voters toward Shah.

Jhapa-5 comprises Damak Municipality, Kamal Rural Municipality, wards 1–8 of Gauradaha Municipality, and wards 3, 4, 5 and 6 of Gaurigunj Rural Municipality. The constituency has 163,379 voters, including around 10,000 new voters. More than one-third of the electorate belongs to indigenous nationalities, whose votes are expected to play a decisive role.

In the last local elections, RPP led Damak Municipality, the UML controlled Gauradaha, and the Nepali Congress led Kamal and Gaurigunj. Candidates from the Shram Sanskriti Party, led by Harka Sampang, and the Nepali Communist Party have also entered the race, raising the possibility of indigenous vote fragmentation.

Several development projects associated with Oli are also under scrutiny. The much-publicised Damak View Tower has yet to become fully operational, while work on the Nepal–China Friendship Industrial Park has stalled. Disputes over the naming and location of the Indigenous Nationalities Stadium have also left the project incomplete—issues that opponents are highlighting during the campaign.

The RSP has said it will focus its campaign on unfinished development projects, corruption, poor governance and institutional decay. Local party leaders believe Shah’s candidacy could send a strong message not only in Jhapa but also in national politics.

UML supporters, meanwhile, credit Oli with infrastructure development, citing roads, buildings and other projects. However, many young voters argue that most projects remain incomplete and say they are seeking an alternative.

With multiple parties in the fray and shifting political alliances, the outcome in Jhapa-5 remains uncertain. A constituency once seen as Oli’s safest seat is now witnessing one of the most closely watched contests in the country, symbolising a broader clash between old and new political forces.