March 30: The way in which AI tools like ChatGPT are advancing would not be too surprising if most human jobs are replaced by AI tools. Now a report by Goldman Sachs has claimed that ChatGPT and the other AI tools could actually replace more than 300 million jobs. Interestingly, ChatGPT, which has now received an upgraded lamguage model, GPT-4, listed 20 jobs it can replace.
Goldman Sachs economists predicted in a report that 18% of work globally could be computerized, with the effects felt more deeply in advanced economies than emerging markets.
White-collar workers are seen to be more at risk than manual laborers owing to the use of artificial intelligence. Administrative workers and lawyers are expected to be most affected, the economists said, compared to the “little effect” seen on physically demanding or outdoor occupations, such as construction and repair work.
In the United States and Europe, approximately two-thirds of current jobs “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done by AI completely, the bank estimates.
If generative technology behind ChatGPT “delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the economists wrote. Of late, ChatGPT, the chatbot sensation, has taken the world by storm.
ChatGPT, which can answer prompts and write essays, has already prompted many businesses to rethink how people should work every day.
This month, its developer unveiled the latest version of the software behind the bot, GPT-4. The platform has quickly impressed early users with its ability to simplify coding, rapidly create a website from a simple sketch and pass exams with high marks.
Further use of such AI will likely lead to job losses, the Goldman Sachs economists wrote. But they noted that technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically also created employment growth over the long haul.
While workplaces may shift, widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labor productivity — and boost global GDP by 7% annually over a 10-year period, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI,” the economists added.
“Most workers are employed in occupations that are partially exposed to AI automation and, following AI adoption, will likely apply at least some of their freed-up capacity toward productive activities that increase output.”
“The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and a productivity boost for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom like those that followed the emergence of earlier general-purpose technologies like the electric motor and personal computer,” researchers stated. (agencies)