Weekly Analysis

  4 min 44 sec to read
Weekly Analysis

                                 Chart 1. Nepse Weekly Candle stick pattern

Nepse Index CMP: 1112.87                 Anticipated Range for next week: 1098.51 to 1126.51

The pivot table for

S3

S2

S1

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

1075.30

1093.72

1103.30

1121.72

1131.30

1149.72

1159.30

 

 

 

 

This week (Magh 27th to Falgun 2nd) trading volume:  Rs 303.74 crores/ Rs 111.98 Crores

Last week’s (Magh 20th to 24th) trading volume: Rs 150.45 Crores

The Trading volume:

While analyzing the trading volume an anomaly could be observed. That is this week’s trading volume seems too higher compared to the previous week, this is because of the weekly last day a big volume of scrips EBL promoter share has been traded in market to make a total of Rs 303.74 for the week. If this particular trade is excluded then the average weekly transaction volume should be Rs 111.98 crores. So this puts the anomaly to market as the first figure is greater than the last week trading volume while the second figure is lower than the last week trading volume which Is  Rs150.45 crores. In the first case, the volume should be indicated as bearish volume while in second case the volume is not bearish. If the bearish volume dominates the market then further price slide is expected and if not then saturation with support is expected.

Candle sticks Pattern:

While observing Nepse weekly candle stick (Chart 1), if market sustains current level and bounce back above next week’s pivot with rise in volume then double bottom candle stick pattern is formed and the market should go up. But if current level is not sustained and market slides blow current level then further medium sized slides are ahead.

Monthly candle stick pattern also suggests the market with the same support level as weekly. Chart 2 illustrates the monthly candle stick chart.

Fundamental Analysis:

  1. 1. The 3rd quarter of the fiscal year has begun. The financial statements of optimum company havebeen already published and that is mixed.
  2. 2.There are few companies whose profit ratio has risen but their prices are over sold. So these scrips are good for buying at current level and its best if the price further slides.
  3. 3.Economic indicators show the twin deficits as foe viz. Trade deficits and current account deficits. We have been facing the trade deficits for quite long but since recent past we have also been facing current account deficits which should be addressed by government policy.
  4. 4.The risk of the twin deficits have been averse by the remittance ( GNP) in short term. That is good but how long?
  5. 5.The foreign reserve is satisfactory though.
  6. 6.GDP forecast is approx. 6 pc

 

 

                                           Chart : Nepse monthly candle stick pattern

Happy Trading………!!!!!!!

The pivot table for tomorrow (5th falgun)

S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3
1099.993 1106.10 1109.48333 1115.59 1118.973 1125.08 1128.463

Turnover table:

Today’s (2ndfalgun) volume         : Rs 216.65 corers/ Rs. 191.76 corers

Yesterdays (1stfalgun) volume  : Rs 23.88 corers

 

                                    Chart: NEPSE Daily Candle stick 

No comments yet. Be the first one to comment.